Areas of expertise

• Psychological Methodology, Design And Analysis 170110
• Decision Making 170202
• Social And Community Psychology 170113
• Applied Statistics 010401

Research interests

Biography

Current student projects

Publications

• Smithson, M, Shou, Y, Dawel, A et al. 2022, 'The Psychological Benefits of an Uncertain World: Hope and Optimism in the Face of Existential Threat', Frontiers in Psychology, vol. 13.
• Shou, Y, Smithson, M, Gulliver, A et al. 2022, 'Risk tolerance and changes in COVID-related health behaviors: A longitudinal study', Health Psychology, vol. 41, no. 8, pp. 507-518.
• Smithson, M & Shou, Y 2021, 'How Big Is (Sample) Space? Judgment and Decision Making With Unknown States and Outcomes', American Psychological Association, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 237-256.
• Dawel, A, Shou, Y, Smithson, M et al. 2021, 'Corrigendum: The Effect of COVID-19 on Mental Health and Wellbeing in a Representative Sample of Australian Adults', Frontiers in Psychiatry, vol. 11.
• Dawel, A, Shou, Y, Gulliver, A et al. 2021, 'Cause or Symptom? A Longitudinal Test of Bidirectional Relationships Between Emotion Regulation Strategies and Mental Health Symptoms', Emotion, vol. 21, no. 7, pp. 1511-1521.
• Alzaatreh, A, Aljarrah, M, Smithson, M et al. 2020, 'Truncated Family of Distributions with Applications to Time and Cost to Start a Business', Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 5-27.
• Shou, Y, Olney, J, Smithson, M et al. 2020, 'Impact of uncertainty and ambiguous outcome phrasing on moral decision-making', PLOS ONE (Public Library of Science), vol. 15, no. 5, pp. 1-20.
• Bammer, G, O'Rourke, M, O'Connell, D et al 2020, 'Expertise in research integration and implementation for tackling complex problems: when is it needed, where can it be found and how can it be strengthened?', Palgrave Communications, vol. 6, article 5, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-019-0380-0.
• Dawel, A, Shou, Y, Smithson, M et al. 2020, 'The Effect of COVID-19 on Mental Health and Wellbeing in a Representative Sample of Australian Adults', Frontiers in Psychiatry, vol. 11, 579985
• Smithson, M 2019, 'Incompletely known sample spaces: Models and human intuitions', 11th International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications, ISIPTA 2019, ed. J De Bock, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, Ghent, pp. 367-376.
• Smithson, M, Priest, D, Shou, Y et al 2019, 'Ambiguity and Conflict Aversion When Uncertainty Is in the Outcomes', Frontiers in Psychology, vol. 10, no. -, pp. -.
• Lane, J, Robbins, R, Rohan, M et al. 2019, 'Caricaturing can improve facial expression recognition in low-resolution images and age-related macular degeneration', Journal of Vision, vol. 19, no. 6.
• Shou, Y & Smithson, M 2019, 'cdfquantreg: An R Package for CDF-Quantile Regression', Journal of Statistical Software, vol. 88, no. 1, pp. 1-30.
• Smithson, M 2019, 'Imprecise compositional data analysis: Alternative statistical methods', 11th International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications, ISIPTA 2019, ed. J De Bock, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, Ghent, pp. 364-366.
• Ben-Haim, Y & Smithson, M 2018, 'Data-based prediction under uncertainty: CDF-quantile distributions and info-gap robustness', Journal of Mathematical Psychology, vol. 87, pp. 11-30.
• Smithson, M & Blakey, P 2018, 'New distributions for modeling subjective lower and upper probabilities', International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, vol. 100, pp. 56-68.
• Brown, R, Thorsteinsson, E, Smithson, M et al. 2017, 'Can body temperature dysregulation explain the co-occurrence between overweight/obesity, sleep impairment, late-night eating, and a sedentary lifestyle?', Eating and Weight Disorders, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 599-608pp.
• Bradley, B & Smithson, M 2017, 'Groupness in Preverbal Infants: Proof of Concept', Frontiers in Psychology, vol. 8, no. 385, pp. 1-10.
• Smithson, M, Shou, Y & Yu, W 2017, 'Question word-order influences on covariate effects: predicting zero-sum beliefs', Behaviormetrika, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 539-558.
• Smithson, M & Shou, Y 2017, 'Moderator effects differ on alternative effect-size measures', Behavior Research Methods, vol. 49, no. 2, pp. 747-757pp.
• Egozcue, M, Garcia, L, Katsikopoulos, K, & Smithson, M. 2017, 'Simple models in finance: A mathematical analysis of the probabilistic recognition heuristic', Journal of Risk Model Validation, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 83-103pp.
• Lee, E. Reynolds, K.J., Subasic E., Bromhead, D., Lin, H., Marinov, V., & Smithson, M. (2017). Development of a Dual School Climate and School Identification Measure–Student (SCASIM-St) Contemporary Educational Psychology, 49, 91-106
• Smithson, M & Shou, Y 2017, 'CDF-quantile distributions for modelling random variables on the unit interval', British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, online, doi: 10.1111/bmsp.12091.
• Shou, Y & Smithson, M 2016, 'Causal Reasoning Under Ambiguity: An Illustration of Modeling Mixture Strategies', Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, vol. online, no. online, pp. -.
• Smithson, M & Shou, Y 2016, 'Asymmetries in Responses to Attitude Statements: The Example of "Zero-Sum" Beliefs', Frontiers in Psychology, vol. 7, no. 984, pp. 1-14.
• Smithson, M 2016, 'Human Understandings of Probability', in Alan Hajek and Christopher Hitchcock (ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Probability and Philosophy, Oxford University Press, United Kingdom, pp. 477-496pp.
• Smithson, M 2016, 'Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic in the Human Sciences', in Cengiz Kahraman, Uzay Kaymak, Adnan Yazici (ed.), Fuzzy Logic in its 50th Year. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, Springer, Springer International, pp. 175-184pp.
• Corke, M, Bell, J, Goodhew, S et al. 2016, 'Perceived time slows during fleeting fun or fear', Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, vol. 71, no. 2, pp. 562-567pp.
• Smithson, M 2015, 'Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict', Frontiers in Psychology, vol. 6, no. -, pp. 9pp.
• Smithson, M, Sopena, A & Platow, M 2015, 'When is group membership zero-sum? Effects of ethnicity, threat, and social identity on dual national identity', PLOS ONE (Public Library of Science), vol. 10, no. 6, pp. e0130539-e0130539.
• Smithson, M & Pushkarskaya, H 2015, 'Ignorance and the brain: Are there distinct kinds of unknowns?', in Gross, M. & McGoey, L. (ed.), International Handbook of Ignorance Studies, Routledge, New York, pp. 114-124.
• Pushkarskaya, H., Smithson, M., Joseph, J.E., Corbly, C., & Levy, I. 2015, 'Neural correlates of decision making under ambiguity and conflict', Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience.
• Shou, Y & Smithson, M 2015, 'Evaluating Predictors of Dispersion: A Comparison of Dominance Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging', Psychometrika, vol. 80, no. 1, pp. 236-256.
• Shou, Y & Smithson, M 2015, 'Adapting to an uncertain world: Cognitive capacity and causal reasoning with ambiguous observations', PLOS ONE (Public Library of Science), vol. 10, no. 10, pp. e0140608-e0140608.
• Shou, Y & Smithson, M 2015, 'Effects of question formats on causal judgments and model evaluation', Frontiers in Psychology, Frontiers in psychology, 6-467
• Smithson, M & Ben-Haim, Y 2015, 'Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise', Risk Analysis, vol. 35, no. 10, pp. 1911-1918.
• Shou, Y & Smithson, M 2015, 'Modelling causal reasoning under ambiguity', In D. C. Noelle, R. Dale, A. S. Warlaumont, J. Yoshimi, T. Matlock, C. D. Jennings, & P. P. Maglio(Eds.), Proceedings of the 37th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 2170-2175)., Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
• Lewandowsky, S, Oreskes, N, Risbey, J et al 2015, 'Seepage: Climate change denial and its effect on the scientific community', Global Environmental Change - Human and Policy Dimensions, vol. 33, pp. 1-13.
• Monaghan, C, Bizumic, B, Reynolds, K et al (2014). Performance of student software development teams: the influence of personality and identifying as team members', European Journal of Engineering Education, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 52-67.
• Smithson, M 2014, 'Elicitation', in Thomas Augustin, Frank Coolen, Gert de Cooman, Matthias Troffaes (ed.), Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities, Wiley, London, pp. 318-328.
• Budescu, D, Por, H, Broomell, S et al 2014, 'The interpretation of IPCC probabilistic statements around the world', Nature Climate Change, vol. 4, no. 6, pp. 508-512.
• Lewandowsky, S, Risbey, J, Smithson, M et al. 2014, 'Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation', Climatic Change, vol. 124, no. 1-2, pp. 39-52.
• Lewandowsky, S, Risbey, J, Smithson, M et al. 2014, 'Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part I. Uncertainty and unabated emissions', Climatic Change, vol. 124, no. 1-2, pp. 21-37.
• Smithson, M & Shou, Y 2014, 'Randomly stopped sums: Models and psychological applications', Frontiers in Psychology, 5:1279.
• Platow, M, Grace, D & Smithson, M 2014, 'When immigrants and converts are not truly one of us: Examining the social psychology of marginalizing racism', in Fiona Jenkins, Mark Nolan, Kim Rubenstein (ed.), Allegiance and Identity in a Globalised World, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, pp. 192-220.
• Shou, Y & Smithson, M 2014, 'Working memory and causal reasoning under Ambiguity', In P. Bello, M. Guarini, M. McShane, & B. Scassellati ( Eds. ), Proceedings of the 36th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
• Smithson, M & Merkle, E 2014, Generalized Linear Models for Categorical and Continuous Limited Dependent Variables, CRC Press, Florida.
• Smithson, M 2013, 'Unknowns in the Dual-Use Dilemmas', in Rappert, Brian, Selgelid, M. (ed.), On the Dual Uses of Science and Ethics: Principles, Practices, and Prospects, ANU E Press, Canberra, pp. 165 184.
• Smithson, M 2013, 'Conflict and Ambiguity: Preliminary Models and Empirical Tests', Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, ed. Fabio Cozman, Thierry Denoeux, Sebastien Destercke, Teddy Seidenfeld, SIPTA, Compiegne France, pp. 303-310.
• McKay, C, Nolan, M & Smithson, M, Effectiveness of Question Trails as Jury Decision Aids: the Jury's Still Out, 2013 Psychiatry, Psychology and Law (Published online 1 Oct 2013 DOI:10.1080/13218719.2013.839929)
• Smithson, M 2012, 'A simple statistic for comparing moderation of slopes and correlations', Frontiers in Psychology, vol. 3, no. July, pp. 1-9.
• Verkuilen, J & Smithson, M 2012, 'Mixed and mixture regression models for continuous bounded responses using the beta distribution', Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 82-113.
• Butcher, P, Bouma, A, Stremmelaar, E et al 2012, 'Visuospatial Perception in Children Born Preterm With No Major Neurological Disorders', Neuropsychology, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 723-734.
• Hajek, A & Smithson, M 2012, 'Rationality and Indeterminate Probabilities', Synthese, vol.187, 33-48.
• Smithson, M. ,2012, 'Uncertainty,'In V.S. Ramachandran (ed.) Encyclopedia of Human Behavior, 2nd Edition. Oxford: Elsevier, pp. 621-628.
• Merkle, E, Smithson, M & Verkuilen, J 2011, 'Hierarchical models of simple mechanisms underlying confidence in decision making', Journal of Mathematical Psychology, vol. 55, no. 1, pp. 57-67.
• Smithson, M, Merkle, E & Verkuilen, J 2011, 'Beta Regression Finite Mixture Models of Polarization and Priming', Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, vol. 36, no. 6, pp. 804-831.
• Smithson, M, Budescu, D, Broomell, S et al 2012, 'Never say "not": Impact of negative wording in probability phrases on imprecise probability judgments', International Symposium on Imprecise Probability (ISIPTA 2011), ed. Coolen, Frank; de Cooman,Gert; Fetz, Thomas; Oberguggenberger, Michael, Conference Organising Committee, Innsbruck, Austria, pp. 1262-1270.
• Platow, M, Grace, D & Smithson, M 2011, 'Examining the Preconditions for Psychological Group Membership: Perceived Social Interdependence as the Outcome of Self-Categorization', Social Psychological and Personality Science, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 5-13.
• Smithson, M, Davies, M, & Aimola Davies, AM 2011, 'Exploiting test structure: Case series, case-control comparison, and testing for dissociation', Cognitive Neuropsychology, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 44-64.
• Smithson, M 2010, 'Understanding Uncertainty', in Gabriele Bammer (ed.), Dealing with Uncertainties in Policing Serious Crime, ANU ePress, Canberra, pp. 27-48.
• Smithson, M 2010, 'When less is more in the recognition heuristic', Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 230-243.
• Pymont, C & Smithson, M 2010, '1 + 1 = 3 : Factors influencing error detection with mathematical and reasoning problems', Conference of the Australasian Society for Cognitive Science (ASCS 2009), ed. WAYNE CHRISTENSEN, ELIZABETH SCHIER, JOHN SUTTON, Australasian Society for Cognitive Science, Macquarie University, Sydney, pp. 285-292.
• Pushkarskaya, H, Smithson, M, Liu, X et al 2010, 'Neuroeconomics of environmental uncertainty and the theory of firm', in Angela A. Stanton, Mellani Day and Isabell M. Welpe (ed.), Neuroeconomics and the Firm, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, pp. 13-28.
• Pushkarskaya, H, Liu, X, Smithson, M et al 2010, 'Beyond risk and ambiguity: Deciding under ignorance', Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 382-391.
• Smithson, M 2010, 'Ignorance and Uncertainty', in Valerie Brown, John Harris, Jacqueline Russell (ed.), Tackling Wicked Problems: Through the Transdisciplinary Imagination, Earthscan Publications Ltd, London, UK and Washington DC, USA, pp. 84-97.
• Smithson, M 2010, 'A Review of Six Introductory Texts on Bayesian Methods', Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 371-374.
• Smithson, M 2009, 'How many alternatives? Partitions pose problems for predictions and diagnoses', Social Epistemology: A Journal of Knowledge, Culture and Policy, vol. 23, no. 3-4, pp. 347-360.
• Smithson, M & Segale, C 2009, 'Partition priming in judgments of imprecise probabilities', Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 169-181.
• Smithson, M & Campbell, P 2009, 'Buying and selling prices under risk, ambiguity and conflict', International Symposium on Imprecise Probability (ISIPTA 2009), ed. T. Augustin, F.P.A. Coolen, S.Moral, & M.C.M. Troffaes, Durham University, Durham UK, pp. 387-394.
• Aimola Davies, AM, Davies, M, Ogden, J, Smithson, M, & White, RC 2009, 'Cognitive and Motivational Factors in Anosognosia', in Tim Bayne and Jordi Fernandez (ed.), Delusion and Self-Deception: affective and motivational influences on belief formation, Psychology Press, Taylor & Francis, USA, pp. 187-225.
• Bammer, G & Smithson, M 2008, 'Introduction [to Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives]', in Gabriele Bammer and Michael Smithson (ed.), Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives, Earthscan Publications Ltd, London, pp. 3-12.
• Smithson, M 2008, 'The Many Faces and Masks of Uncertainty', in Gabriele Bammer and Michael Smithson (ed.), Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives, Earthscan Publications Ltd, London, pp. 13-25.
• Smithson, M 2008, 'Social Theories of Ignorance', in Robert N Proctor and Londa Schiebinger (ed.), Agnotology:The Making and Unmaking of Ignorance, Stanford University Press, Stanford California, pp. 209-229.
• Smithson, M 2008, 'Psychology's Ambivalent View of Uncertainty', in Gabriele Bammer and Michael Smithson (ed.), Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives, Earthscan Publications Ltd, London, pp. 205 - 217.
• Smithson, M & Baker, C 2008, 'Risk orientation, loving, and liking in long-term romantic relationships', Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 87-103.
• Smithson, M, Bammer, G, Attewell, R et al. 2008, 'Coping and Managing under Uncertainty', in Gabriele Bammer and Michael Smithson (ed.), Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives, Earthscan Publications Ltd, London, pp. 321-335.
• Smithson, M, Bammer, G, Attewell, R et al. 2008, 'Uncertainty Metaphors, Motives and Morals', in Gabriele Bammer and Michael Smithson (ed.), Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives, Earthscan Publications Ltd, London, pp. 305-320.
• Bammer, G, Smithson, M, Attewell, R et al. 2008, 'The Nature of Uncertainty', in Gabriele Bammer and Michael Smithson (ed.), Uncertainty and Risk: Multidisciplinary Perspectives, Earthscan Publications Ltd, London, pp. 289-304.
• Bammer, G & Smithson, M, eds, 2008, Uncertainty and risk: Multidisciplinary perspectives, Earthscan Publications Ltd, London.
• Bammer, G, Attewell, R, Delaney, K et al. 2008, 'Improving the management of ignorance and uncertainty: A case illustrating integration in collaboration', in Shani A. B, Mohrman S.A, Pasmore W.A., Stymne B., Adler N. (ed.), Handbook of Collaborative Management Research, Sage Publications Inc, Thousand Oaks, CA, US, pp. 421-437 (Chapter 20).
• Smithson, M, Deady, S & Gracik, L 2007, 'Guilty, Not Guilty, or...? Multiple Options in Jury Verdict Choices', Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, vol. 20, pp. 481-498.
• Smithson, M 2006, 'Scale construction from a decisional viewpoint', Minds and Machines: journal for artificial intelligence, philosophy and cognitive sciences, vol. 16, pp. 339-364.
• Smithson, M & Verkuilen, J 2006, 'A better lemon squeezer? Maxium-likelihood regression with beta-distributed dependent variables', Psychological Methods, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 54-71.
• Smithson, M & Verkuilen, J 2006, Fuzzy Set Theory: Applications in the Social Sciences, Sage Publications Inc, London UK.
• Smithson, M 2006, 'A little (more) knowledge: Comments on Wood et al.', Addiction, vol. 101, pp. 622-623.
• McGarty, C & Smithson, M 2005, 'Independence and nonindependence: A simple method for comparing groups using multiple measures and the binomial test', European Journal of Social Psychology, vol. 35, pp. 171-180.
• Smithson, M & Verkuilen, J 2005, 'A better lemon-squeezer? Maximum likelihood regression with beta-distributed dependent variables', Annual Conference of the Society for Social Psychologists 2005, ed. Michael Innes, Taylor & Francis Group, UK, Australia, pp. 98-98.
• Smithson, M, McFadden, M & Mwesigye, S 2005, 'Impact of federal drug law enforcement on the supply of heroin in Australia', Addiction, vol. 100, no. 8, pp. 1110-1120.
• Smithson, M 2005, 'Fuzzy set Inclusion - Linking fuzzy set methods with mainstream techniques', Sociological Methods and Research, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 431-461.
• Smithson, M, McFadden, M, Mwesigye, S et al 2004, 'The impact of illicit drug supply reduction on health and social outcomes: the heroin shortage in the Australian Capital Territory', Addiction, vol. 99, no. 3, pp. 340-348.
• Sorrentino, R, Smithson, M, Hodson, G et al 2003, 'The theory of uncertainty orientation: a mathematical reformulation', Journal of Mathematical Psychology, vol. 47, pp. 132-149.
• Smithson, M 2003, Confidence Intervals (7th ed), Sage Publications Inc, USA.
• Ryan, J, Corry, J, Attewell, R et al. 2002, 'A comparison of an electronic version of the SF-36 General Health Questionnaire to the standard paper version', Quality of Life Research, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 19-26.
• Smithson, M 2001, 'Correct confidence intervals for various regression effect sizes and parameters: The importance of noncentral distributions in computing intervals', Educational and Psychological Measurement, vol. 61, no. 4, pp. 605-632.
• Smithson, M, Bartos, T & Takemura, K 2000, 'Human judgment under sample space ignorance', Risk Decision and Policy, vol. 5, pp. 135-150.
• Smithson, M 1999, 'Conflict Aversion: Preference for Ambiguity vs Conflict in Sources and Evidence', Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, vol. 79, pp. 179-198.

Projects and Grants

Grants information is drawn from ARIES. To add or update Projects or Grants information please contact your College Research Office.

• Fake News and Post-Truth Impacts: Responses to Conflictive Uncertainty (Primary Investigator)
• Discovering sources of individual differences in first language acquisition (Secondary Investigator)
• Judgements and Decisions under Ambiguity and Conflict (Primary Investigator)
• Zero-Sum Thinking: Psychological Predictors and Causes (Primary Investigator)
• Statistical modelling consultancy (Primary Investigator)
• When immigrants and converts are not truly one of us: Examining the social psychology and developmental antecedents of marginalizing racism (Secondary Investigator)