Associate Professor Collin Payne
PhD, Demography, University of Pennsylvania; BA, Sociology and Applied Statistics, University of Wisconsin
ARC DECRA Fellow and Associate Professor, School of Demography
ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences
Areas of expertise
- Mortality 160304
- Population Trends And Policies 160305
- Applied Statistics 010401
- Stochastic Analysis And Modelling 010406
- Epidemiology 111706
Research interests
My substantive research centres on the intersections between population ageing and population health, with a focus on understanding the dynamics of chronic health conditions, frailty, and multimorbidity over time and across generations. I also research the implications of the co-existence of chronic conditions and infectious diseases (primarily HIV/AIDS) for both individual health outcomes and health systems. My methodological research centers on causal multistate models and demographic microsimulation.
Current areas of work include:
- Generational changes in health across low-, middle-, and high-income contexts
- Interrelations between mental, physical, and cognitive health
- Exposure to life-course trauma and late-life health and well-being
My methodological research interests include:
- Demographic applications of microsimulation models
- Causal methods for population health research
- Formal demography of longevity
Biography
Collin Payne joined the ANU School of Demography following a post-doctoral fellowship at the Harvard University, and completed a Ph.D. in Demography at the University of Pennsylvania. He is an ARC DECRA Fellow, an ANU Futures Scheme recipient, an Associate Investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research, and visiting faculty member at the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies
More information available at: https://collinfpayne.com/
Researcher's projects
Advancing Research on Healthy Longevity in Australia and the Asia Pacific. ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award, 2021-2023.
- This project will analyse long-term data from Australia to explore trends in the health of successive generations of older Australians, providing improved information for planning future demand for health services, the age pension, and aged care. New methods will be developed to identify the diseases leading to health inequalities among Australia’s older population, providing policymakers with clear insight on the most high-priority conditions to target with interventions.
Health, well-being and longevity of older adults in low and middle-income countries. ANU Futures Scheme, 2019-2023.
- This project focuses on understanding the dynamic pathways connecting social, biological, developmental, and policy determinants of health, and will be used to develop comparative models of potential future trends of health and health-care needs in LMI countries.
Surviving an epidemic: Families and well-being, Malawi, 1998-2020. NIH NICHD R01.
- This project examines individual and household predictors of survival, resiliance, and recovery from the HIV epidemic in rural Malawi.
Available student projects
The Future of Ageing and Health in Low- and Middle-income Countries. ANU Futures Scheme, 2019-2023
With funding provided by the ANU Futures Scheme, this project focusses on developing a new evidence-base on ageing in low- and middle-income (LMI) countries by utilising emerging nationally-representative longitudinal data sources.
Current student projects
Lilipramawanty Liwin - The Effect of Social Determinants, Macroeconomic Factors and Health Policies on Non-Communicable Disease Related Morbidity and Mortality in Indonesia
Ayumi Malamassam - Youth Migration and Higher Education in the Context of Human Capital Development in Indonesia
Tianyu (Alex) Shen - Living Longer and Healthier? An Advancement of Methodology and Understanding of Health Expectancy
Publications
- Payne, C, Liwin, L, Wade, A et al. 2023, 'Impact of diabetes on longevity and disability-free life expectancy among older South African adults: A prospective longitudinal analysis', Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, vol. 197.
- Payne, C & Kobayashi, L 2022, 'Changes in Life Expectancy and Disability-Free Life Expectancy in Successive Birth Cohorts of Older Cancer Survivors: A Longitudinal Modeling Analysis of the US Health and Retirement Study', American Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 191, no. 1, pp. 104-114.
- Payne, C, Houle, B, Chinogurei, C et al. 2022, 'Differences in healthy longevity by HIV status and viral load among older South African adults: An observational cohort modeling study', The Lancet HIV, vol. 9, no. 10, pp. e709-16.
- Payne, C 2022, 'Expansion, Compression, Neither, Both? Divergent Patterns in Healthy, Disability-Free, and Morbidity-Free Life Expectancy Across U.S. Birth Cohorts, 1998-2016', Demography, vol. 59, no. 3, pp. 949-973.
- Payne, C & Xu, Q 2022, 'Life Course Socioeconomic Status and Healthy Longevity in China', Demography, vol. 59, no. 2, pp. 629-652.
- Canudas Romo, V, Shen, T & Payne, C 2022, 'The Components of Change in Population Growth Rates', Demography, vol. 59, no. 2, pp. 417-431. https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9765067
- Brinkmann, B, Davies, J, Witham, M et al. 2021, 'Impairment in activities of daily living and unmet need for care among older adults: a population-based study from Burkina Faso', Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, vol. xx, no. xx, pp. 11-13.
- Wade, A, Payne, C, Berkman, L et al. 2021, 'Multimorbidity and mortality in an older rural black South African population cohort wit high prevalence of HIV findings from the HAALSI study', BMJ Open, vol. 11, pp. 1-9.
- Barker, F, Davies, J, Gomez-Olive, F et al. 2021, 'Developing and evaluating a frailty index for older South Africans - findings from the HAALSI study', Age and Ageing, vol. 2021, pp. 1-7.
- Canudas Romo, V, Shen, T & Payne, C 2021, 'The role of reductions in old-age mortality in old-age population growth', Demographic Research 44(44): 1073-1084. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2021.44.44
- Sudharsanan, N, Zhang, Y, Payne, C et al. 2020, 'Education and adult mortality in middle-income countries: Surprising gradients in six nationally-representative longitudinal surveys', SSM - Population Health, vol. 12, no. -, pp. -.
- Kobayashi, L, Farrell, M, Payne, C et al. 2020, 'Adverse childhood experiences and domain-specific cognitive function in a population-based study of older adults in rural South Africa', Psychology and Aging, vol. 35, no. 6, pp. 818-830.
- Rosenberg, M, Gomez-Olive, F, Wagner, R et al. 2020, 'The relationships between cognitive function, literacy and HIV status knowledge among older adults in rural South Africa', Journal of the International AIDS Society, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 1-9.
- Brinkmann, B, Payne, C, Kohler, I et al. 2020, 'Depressive symptoms and cardiovascular disease: A population-based study of older adults in rural Burkina Faso', BMJ Open, vol. 10, no. 12.
- Kohler, I, Bandawe, C, Ciancio, A et al. 2020, 'Cohort profile: The mature adults cohort of the Malawi longitudinal study of families and health (MLSFH-MAC)', BMJ Open, vol. 10, no. 10, pp. 1-10.
- Witham, M, Davies, J, Barninghausen, T et al. 2020, 'Frailty and physical performance in the context of extreme poverty: a population-based study of older adults in rural Burkina Faso [IN PRESS]', Wellcome Open Research, vol. 4, no. 135, pp. 1-16.
- Strange, C, Fraser, F & Payne, C 2020, 'Inter-gender murder in NSW, 1901-1955: Reconsidering the laws of fraternity', Journal of Criminology, vol. 54, no. 2, p. 160-178.
- Payne, C, Mall, S, Kobayashi, L et al. 2020, 'Life-Course Trauma and Later Life Mental, Physical, and Cognitive Health in a Postapartheid South African Population: Findings From the HAALSI study', Journal of Aging and Health, vol. 32, no. 9, pp. 1244-1257.
- Odland, M, Payne, C, Witham, M et al. 2020, 'Epidemiology of multimorbidity in conditions of extreme poverty: A population-based study of older adults in rural Burkina Faso', BMJ Global Health, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. -.
- Myroniuk, T & Payne, C 2019, 'The Longitudinal Dynamics of Household Composition and Wealth in Rural Malawi', Journal of Comparative Family Studies, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 242-260.
- Chang, A, Gomez-Olive, F, Payne, C et al 2019, 'Chronic Multimorbidity among older adults in rural South Africa', BMJ Global Health, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 1-10.
- Payne, C & Wong, R 2019, 'Expansion of disability across successive Mexican birth cohorts: a longitudinal modelling analysis of birth cohorts born 10 years apart', Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, vol. 73, no. 10, pp. 900-905.
- Guillot, M & Payne, C 2019, 'Tracking progress in mean longevity: The Lagged Cohort Life Expectancy (LCLE) approach', Population Studies, vol. 73, no. 3, pp. 405-421.
- Payne, C, Pesando, L & Kohler, H 2019, 'Private intergenerational transfers, family structure and health in a sub-Saharan African context', Population and Development Review, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 41-80.
- Liu, Z, Han, L, Feng, Q et al 2019, 'Are China’s oldest-old living longer with less disability? A longitudinal modeling analysis of birth cohorts born 10 years apart', BMC Medicine, vol. 17, no. 23, pp. 1-13.
- Harling, G, Payne, C, Davies, J et al. 2020, 'Impairment in Activities of Daily Living, Care Receipt, and Unmet Needs in a Middle-Aged and Older Rural South African Population: Findings From the HAALSI Study', Journal of Aging and Health, vol. 32, no. 5-6, pp. 296-307.
- Geldsetzer, P, Maria, V, Wagner, R et al 2018, 'Depressive Symptoms and Their Relation to Age and Chronic Diseases Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults in Rural South Africa: A cross-sectional population-based study', Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, vol. 74, no. 6, pp. 957-963.
- Payne, C, Davies, J, Gomez-Olive, F et al 2018, 'Cross-sectional relationship between Hemoglobin concentration and measures of physical and cognitive function in an older rural South African Population', Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, vol. 72, no. 9, pp. 796-802pp.
- Gomez-Olive, F, Montana, L, Wagner, R et al 2018, 'Cohort Profile: Health and Ageing in Africa: a Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI)', International Journal of Epidemiology, vol. Online, no. Online, pp. 1-12pp.
- Payne, C 2018, 'Aging in the Americas: Disability-free Life Expectancy Among Adults Aged 65 and Older in the United States, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Puerto Rico', Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, vol. 73, no. 2, pp. 337-348pp.
- Kobayashi, L, Glymour, M, Kahn, K et al 2017, 'Childhood deprivation and later-life cognitive function in a population-based study of older rural South Africans', Social Science and Medicine, vol. 190, pp. 20-28pp.
- Payne, C, Wade, A, Kabudula, C et al 2017, 'Prevalence and correlates of frailty in an older rural African population: findings from the HAALSI cohort study', BMC geriatrics, vol. 17, no. 293, pp. 1-10pp.
- Kohler, I, Payne, C, Bandawe, C et al 2017, 'The Demography of Mental Health Among Mature Adults in a Low-Income, High-HIV-Prevalence Context', Demography, vol. 54, no. 4, pp. 1529-1558pp.
- Payne, C & Kohler, H 2017, 'The population-level impact of public-sector antiretroviral therapy rollout on adult mortality in rural Malawi', Demographic Research, vol. 36, no. 37, pp. 1081-1108pp.
- Payne, C, Gomez-Olive, F, Kahn, K et al 2017, 'Physical Function in an Aging Population in Rural South Africa: Findings From HAALSI and Cross-National Comparisons With HRS Sister Studies', Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, vol. 72, no. 4, pp. 665-679pp.
- Payne, C, Kohler, I, Bandawe, C et al 2017, 'Cognition, Health, and Well-Being among Older Adults in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa', European Journal of Population, vol. Online, pp. 1-26pp.
- Payne, C, Mkandawire, J & Kohler, H 2013, 'Disability Transitions and Health Expectancies among Adults 45 Years and Older in Malawi: A Cohort-Based Model', PLoS Medicine, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 1-15pp.
- Payne, C, Mkandawire, J & Kohler, H 2013, 'Disability transitions among mature adults in Malawi: a cohort modelling analysis', The Lancet, vol. 381, p. 1.
- Curtis, K & Payne, C 2010, 'The differential impact of mortality of American troops in the Iraq War: The non-metropolitan dimension', Demographic Research, vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 41-62pp.
- Payne, C 2009, 'The Effects of Religious Switching at Marriage on Marital Stability and Happiness', Sociological Insight, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 14-30pp.
Projects and Grants
Grants information is drawn from ARIES. To add or update Projects or Grants information please contact your College Research Office.
- Advancing research on healthy longevity in Australia and the Asia-Pacific (Primary Investigator)
