Associate Professor Kathryn Glass
Areas of expertise
 Epidemiology 111706
 Biological Mathematics 010202
Research interests

Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases to inform public health policy

Effects of vaccination on disease outbreaks

Modelling intervention strategies for emerging infectious diseases

Source attribution for pathogens causing gastroenteritis
Current student projects
 Understanding the epidemiology of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV)
 Mathematical modelling of Clostridium difficile
 Investigating control measures for Zika virus using mathematical models
 Modelling interference patterns between respiratory viruses
 The epidemiology of Salmonella in Australia
Publications
 Lokuge, K, Caleo, G, Grieg, J et al 2016, 'Successful Control of Ebola Virus Disease: Analysis of Service Based Data from Rural Sierra Leone', PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. online, pp. (13 pp).
 Ndii, M, Allingham, D, Hickson, R et al 2016, 'The effect of Wolbachia on dengue dynamics in the presence of two serotypes of dengue: symmetric and asymmetric epidemiological characteristics', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. online, pp. (9 pp).
 Vally, H, Glass, K, Ford, L et al 2016, 'Evaluation of a structured expert elicitation estimating the proportion of illness acquired by foodborne transmission for nine enteric pathogens in Australia', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 144, no. 5, pp. 897906.
 Sharmin, S, Glass, K, Viennet, E et al 2016, 'A Bayesian approach for estimating underreported dengue incidence with a focus on nonlinear associations between climate and dengue in Dhaka, Bangladesh', Statistical Methods in Medical Research, vol. Published online before print May 13, 2016.
 Hogan, A, Anderssen, R, Davis, S et al 2016, 'Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia', Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, vol. 16, pp. 4955.
 Ndii, M, Allingham, D, Hickson, R et al 2016, 'The effect of Wolbachia on dengue outbreaks when dengue is repeatedly introduced', Theoretical Population Biology, vol. 111, pp. 915.
 Chen, Y, Glass, K, LIU, B et al 2016, 'A populationbased longitudinal study of Clostridium difficile infectionrelated hospitalization in midage and older Australians', Epidemiology and Infection, pp. 18.
 Jacoby, P, Glass, K & Moore, H 2016, 'Characterizing the risk of respiratory syncytial virus in infants with older siblings: a populationbased birth cohort study', Epidemiology and Infection, pp. 16.
 Chen, Y, Glass, K, Liu, B et al 2016, 'Salmonella Infection in MiddleAged and Older Adults: Incidence and Risk Factors from the 45 and Up Study', Foodborne Pathogens and Disease, vol. 13, no. 12, pp. 689694.
 Vally, H, Glass, K, Ford, L et al 2015, 'Evaluation of a structured expert elicitation estimating the proportion of illness acquired by foodborne transmission for nine enteric pathogens in Australia', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 144, no. 5, pp. 897906.
 Ndii, M, Allingham, D, Hickson, R et al 2015, 'The effect of Wolbachia on dengue dynamics in the presence of two serotypes of dengue: symmetric and asymmetric epidemiological characteristics', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. online, pp. (9 pp).
 Sharmin, S, Glass, K, Viennet, E et al 2015, 'Interaction of mean temperature and daily fluctuation influences dengue incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh', PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 9, no. 7, pp. 113.
 Hogan, A, Glass, K, Moore, H et al 2015, 'Age structures in mathematical models for infectious diseases, with a case study of respiratory syncytial virus', Proceedings of the Forum for Mathematics for Industry 2014, ed. R.S. Anderssen, Springer Japan KK, Tokyo, Japan, pp. 105116.
 Chen, Y, Liu, B, Glass, K et al 2015, 'High incidence of hospitalisation due to infectious gastroenteritis in older people associated with poor selfrated health', BMJ Open, vol. 5, pp. 17.
 Lal, A, Cornish, L, Fearnley, E et al 2015, 'Cryptosporidiosis: A Disease of Tropical and Remote Areas in Australia', PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 9, no. 9, pp. .
 Fielding, J, Kelly, H & Glass, K 2015, 'Transmission of the First Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Pandemic Wave in Australia Was Driven by Undetected Infections: Pandemic Response Implications', PLOS ONE (Public Library of Science), vol. Published online: : December 21, 2015.
 Glass, K, Tait, P, Hanna, E et al 2015, 'Estimating Risks of Heat Strain by Age and Sex: A PopulationLevel Simulation Model', International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 12, no. 5, pp. 52415255.
 Glass, K, Fearnley, E, Hocking, H et al 2015, 'Bayesian Source Attribution of Salmonellosis in South Australia', Risk Analysis, pp. 110.
 Geard, N, Glass, K, McCaw, J et al 2015, 'The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population', Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, vol. 13, pp. 5664.
 Sharmin, S, Viennet, E, Glass, K and Harley D 2015, 'The emergence of dengue in Bangladesh: Epidemiology, challenges and future disease risk', Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 109, no. 10, pp. 619627.
 Ford, L, Kirk, M, Glass, K et al 2014, 'Sequelae of foodborne Illness caused by 5 pathogens, Australia, Circa 2010', Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 20, no. 11, pp. 18651871.
 Kirk, M, Ford, L, Glass, K et al 2014, 'Foodborne illness, Australia, Circa 2000 and Circa 2010', Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 20, no. 11, pp. 18571864.
 Vally, H, Glass, K, Ford, L et al 2014, 'Proportion of illness acquired by foodborne transmission for nine enteric pathogens in Australia: An expert elicitation', Foodborne Pathogens and Disease, vol. 11, no. 9, pp. 727733.
 Glass, K, Ford, L & Kirk, M 2014, 'Drivers of uncertainty in estimates of foodborne gastroenteritis incidence', Foodborne Pathogens and Disease, vol. 11, no. 12, pp. 938944.
 Fielding, J, Kelly, H, Mercer, G et al 2014, 'Systematic review of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus shedding: duration is affected by severity, but not age', Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 142150.
 Hogan, A, Mercer, G, Glass, K et al 2013, 'Modelling the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus in young children', International Congress on Modelling and Simulation MODSIM 2013, ed. Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R.S. and Boland J., Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc., Australia, pp. 338344.
 Klarkowski, D, Glass, K, O'Brien, D et al 2013, 'Variation in specificity of HIV rapid diagnostic tests over place and time: An analysis of discordancy data using a bayesian approach', PLOS ONE (Public Library of Science), vol. 8, no. 11, pp. 19.
 McCaw, J, Glass, K, Mercer, G et al 2013, 'Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics', Journal of Public Health, vol. Online (published dates tbc).
 Glass K, Barnes B. 2013, 'Eliminating infectious diseases of livestock: a metapopulation model of infection control', Theoretical Population Biology, vol. 85, no. 1, pp. 6372.
 Hogan AB, Mercer GN, Glass K, Moore HC. 2013 Modelling the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus in young children. 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2013), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc., Australia.
 Aditamaa, T, Samaan, G, Kusriastuti, R et al 2012, 'Avian influenza H5N1 transmission in households, Indonesia', PLOS ONE (Public Library of Science), vol. 7, no. 1, pp. e299717.
 Glass, K, Kelly, H & Mercer, G 2012, 'Pandemic influenza H1N1: Reconciling serosurvey data with estimates of the reproduction number', Epidemiology, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 8694.
 Glass, K, Mercer, G, Nishiura, H et al 2011, 'Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data', Journal of the Royal Society. Interface, vol. 8, no. 62, pp. 12481259.
 Glass, K, McCaw, J & McVernon, J 2011, 'Incorporating population dynamics into household models of infectious disease transmission', Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, vol. 3, pp. 152158.
 Mercer, G, Glass, K & Becker, N 2011, 'Effective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak', Statistics in Medicine, vol. 30, no. 9, pp. 984997. doi:10.1002/sim.4174
 Paine, S, Mercer, G, Kelly, P et al 2010, 'Transmissibility of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in New Zealand: effective reproduction number and influence of age, ethnicity and importations', Eurosurveillance (Online Edition), vol. 15, no. 24, 17 June 2010, p. 9.
 Kelly, H, Mercer, G, Fielding, J et al 2010, 'Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Community Transmission Was Established in One Australian State When the Virus Was First Identified in North America', PLoS ONE (Public Library of Science), vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 19.
 Glass, K & Becker, N 2009, 'Estimating antiviral effectiveness against pandemic influenza using household data', Journal of the Royal Society. Interface, vol. 6, pp. 695 703.
 Glass, K & Barnes, B 2007, 'How much would closing schools reduce transmission during an influenza pandemic?', Epidemiology, vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 623628.
 Glass, K, Becker, N & Clements, M 2007, 'Predicting case numbers during infectious diseaseoutbreaks when some cases are undiagnosed', Statistics in Medicine, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 171183.
 Barnes, B, Glass, K & Becker, N 2007, 'The role of health care workers and antiviral drugs in the control of pandemic influenza', Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 209, no. 2, pp. 403416.
 Park, A & Glass, K 2007, 'Dynamic patterns of avian and human influenza in east and southeast Asia', The Lancet Infectious Diseases, vol. 7, no. 8, pp. 543548.
 Glass, K & Becker, N 2006, 'Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 134, pp. 10921101.
 Wang, J, McMichael, A, Meng, B et al 2006, 'Spatial dynamics of an epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in an urban area', Bulletin of the World Health Organization, vol. 84, pp. 965968.
 Becker, N & Glass, K 2006, 'The impact of imported infection', in Adrian C. Sleigh, Chee Heng Leng, Brenda SA Yeoh (ed.), Population dynamics and infectious diseases in Asia, World Scientific Publishing Company, Singapore, pp. 7396.
 Becker, N, Glass, K, Li, Z et al 2005, 'Controlling emerging infectious diseases like SARS', Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 193, pp. 205221.
 Glass, K 2005, 'Ecological mechanisms that promote arbovirus survival: a mathematical model of Ross River virus transmission', Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 99, no. 4, pp. 252260.
 Glass, K & Grenfell, B 2004, 'Waning immunity and subclinical measles infections in England', Vaccine, vol. 22, pp. 41104116.
 Park, A, Wood, J, Daly, J et al 2004, 'The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology and equine influenza in a vaccinated population', Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, vol. 271, pp. 15471555.
 Glass, K, Kappey, J & Grenfell, B 2004, 'The effect of heterogeneity in measles vaccination on population immunity', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 132, pp. 675683.
 Glass, K, Xia, Y & Grenfell, B 2003, 'Interpreting timeseries analyses for continuoustime biological models  Measles as a case study.', Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol. 223, pp. 1925.
 Glass, K & Grenfell, B 2003, 'Antibody dynamics in childhood diseases: waning and boosting of immunity and the impact of vaccination', Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol. 221, pp. 121131.
 Glass, K, Wood, J, Mumford, J et al 2002, 'Modelling Equine Influenza 1: A stochastic model of withinyard epidemics', Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 128, pp. 491502.
Projects and Grants
Grants are drawn from ARIES. To add Projects or Grants please contact your College Research Office.
 Understanding the Sources of Campylobacter in Australia (Secondary Investigator)
 Centre of Research Excellence in Infectious Diseases Modelling to Inform Public Health Policy (Secondary Investigator)
 Development of an "ageing household" model for assessing medium to longterm impact in populations (Secondary Investigator)
 Improving response by monitoring incidence and assessing seasonality and specific interventions (Secondary Investigator)
 Assessment of Interventions for Controlling Pandemic Influenza and Determining Data Needs to Inform these Assessments (Secondary Investigator)
 New Mathematical and Statistical Methods that Inform the Control of Infectious Disease Outbreaks (Primary Investigator)